You’re killing us, Rockstar (because now we can’t virtually perform vehicular homicide until next year).
The latest delay for the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI will cost the video game industry $2.7 billion in 2025, according to the latest data from Ampere Analysis. The overall spend on games content and services will still cross $200 billion for the first time ever — albeit by a narrower margin than it would have otherwise — thanks in large part to the June 5 release of the Nintendo Switch 2.
Ampere forecasts very modest growth: from $199.4 billion in 2024 to $201.3 billion in 2025. That’s just about 1 percent in growth, down from last year’s +3.5 percent and less than half of Ampere’s 2026 prediction of +2.2 percent.
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Not that the market is freaking out. Those GTA VI sales will come, and they will be massive. Now they’ll just be recognized by the broader gaming industry in calendar-year 2026 and by Take Two Interactive Software, which owns Rockstar Games, in its fiscal year 2027.
“The release of GTA VI in FY27 is expected to deliver a material uplift in engagement, monetization, and profitability, with the potential to drive multiyear financial strength across both premium and live service revenue streams,” Benchmark analyst Mike Hickney wrote in a note to clients reiterating his “Buy” stance on TTWO stock.
It remains to be seen what Take Two does with GTA Online from a monetization standpoint once GTA VI finally lands.
Michael Pachter of Wedbush also has TTWO as a “Buy”; he’s assuming GTA IV will come out at an $80 price point, so teens might want to start saving their allowance now.
Clay Griffin, a games analyst at MoffettNathanson, is a bit more chill — about everything here, really. He’s “Neutral” on TTWO stock and calls the six-month GTA VI delay (to May 26, 2026) “in the grand scheme…a non-event.”
Piers Harding-Rolls, the Ampere Analysis research director of games, expects the industry to cut costs until it can really raise revenue.
“With no transformative technology, monetization model or distribution play on the horizon to catapult the market forward, games companies are looking for pockets of growth to exploit and to build content more efficiently and at lower cost,” he wrote in his report.
The growth can come, Harding-Rolls wrote, but give the business about one to three years. He’s identified the following five opportunities for the overall industry:
1. Nintendo Switch 2 represents a $7-8 billion content opportunity over the next two years. The new device also offers the tantalizing prospect of higher in-game monetization. Just a moderate increase here would net $1-2 billion additional spending annually.
2. Looking at regional growth opportunities, the Middle East & Africa and Southeast Asia regions offer the strongest potential over the next two years. Ampere predicts $1.3 billion market growth in the two regions combined, underlining the increased importance of non-traditional markets as the sector continues its march towards globalization.
3. Ampere has identified underserved audiences even in the most ‘saturated’ markets. The firm’s U.S. case study shows a population of 120 million across the key cohorts of younger female gamers and those over 55, where gaming has substantial room to grow. Positioning games to attract diverse audiences offers a route to expansion for those companies suffocated by hyper-competition.
4. Optimising monetisation to drive revenue and improve margins, especially in mobile gaming, should continue to be a focus. In addition to driving more off-app store transactions, companies should continue to experiment and test across in-game and app advertising, while also balancing hybrid strategies to monetise most effectively.
5. Building out holistic franchise strategies to drive as much value from games IP investments as possible. A holistic franchise strategy formalises how IP is extended across new product areas, different types of media, and licensing opportunities. The cultural relevance of games means that these opportunities are multiplying.
You know, until GTA VI is here.
